Assessing the Accuracy of California County Level COVID-19 Hospitalization Forecasts to Inform Public Policy Decision Making

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Evaluates model performance and accuracy regarding the forecasting of infectious diseases by retroactively examining COVID-19 forecasting in California counties. Utilizes archived forecasts from the California Department of Public Health's California COVID Assessment Tool to analyze the accuracy of forecasts referenced with actual COVID-19 hospitalization. Discusses issues related to model accuracy, such as local transmission trends, variant prevalence, and county population size, and how accurate forecasting is important for public health planning and policy.

Lauren A. White, Ryan McCorvie, David Crow, Seema Jain, Tomás M. León

BMC Public Health 23, 782

04/2023

COVID-19 · County-by-county data · Planning and strategy methods and resources · Policy · Public health · Research methods and resources · California